These markets do
not resolve on any exchange's price. The oracle is
Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP stream
(a 60-second time-weighted average), relayed here through Polymarket's public real-time feed —
the exact numbers the market settles on. A window resolves
UP when the TWAP at its close is
at or above its value at the open. The dotted blue line is the Binance last price most charts show:
the gap between blue and the candles is why the site's chart "looks different" from your exchange.
The dashed cone and the forecast pill are this page's own call: spot leads the 60-second average,
so the model projects the TWAP toward spot, sizes the odds by recent volatility, and grades itself
once each window settles.